The Reverse Primary Strategy  

     Most people have strong opinions about politics. That is why the phrase "Don't talk about politics and religion" exists. Here in America most of us are divided somewhere along the conservative/liberal line, but more people are closer to a moderate position than a Communist (far left) or Anarchist (far right) position.  While I admit to leaning more to the conservative side I have no intentions of debating who is right in this blog entry. The objective today is to discuss the Republican Presidential Primary and what I find is a very likely strategy that is being used by Mitt Romney.

    Common wisdom is that when you run in a Presidential Primary you play to your base, in this case you speak and act strongly conservative. However, when the General Election rolls around it requires a candidate to get as close to the middle as possible to draw the Independent vote to your side. There are people that make lots of money in politics telling candidates how to draw that so needed independent crowd. The problem however, seems to be two fold. First, Primary voters have tended to pick moderate candidates such as John McCain and Bob Dole( who both got beat in the general elections despite their appeal to the independents) Second, playing to the center does not seem to work that well. 

   Should you go back in history to 1980 and 1984 you will see that Ronald Reagan absolutely crushed his opponents in both elections by running not as a moderate, but as a conservative. He even won most states that normally have nothing to do with Republicans. The strategy of appealing to the center as a Republican seems to fail miserably in the general election despite all of the talk about it being necessary.  

    The Republican Primary of 2008 was a contest with the 2 main players being John McCain and Mitt Romney. Romney at the time was the conservative candidate but got stomped by McCain with the help of the media and the split vote of several conservatives all running.  If you look back at the different state primaries and add up all the votes for conservative candidates versus moderate candidates the conservatives usually won. There was just more conservatives. This is where my theory comes in. Romney is no doubt a smart guy, every business he touches makes lots of money.  I can't help but think he looked at 2008 and told himself he couldn't win the primary running as a conservative. However, if he could win the primary as a moderate and THEN switch to a conservative stance during the General Election, he could use the Reagan based model and possibly propel himself into the presidency. This idea seems far better than a moderate candidate running.  I cannot verify he will do this, I just think this is the ticket to success. We shall see!